When big changes appear on the horizon, most leaders try their best to make sense of what’s happening and prepare for what will happen next.

It’s probably what you’re doing right now.

But when it comes to predicting the future, the track record of most leaders is not that great.

Multiple studies have found that during a crisis, leaders tend to be  overconfident about the accuracy of their forecasts.

For example, I received a marketing email from a prominent real estate vendor earlier this week that had this sub-headline:

Experts estimate that the total commission pool will shrink by up to one-third, and as many as 80% of agents will be forced out of the industry.

These types of broad-reaching predictions usually don’t come true, and those who make them end up looking foolish (who are these experts, anyway?).

But the real harm comes from those who put faith in them and suffer hardship when the predictions turn out to be wrong.

What is the alternative?

Focusing on lowering risk in the small arenas of your business where you have the most control.  

For example, you would have very little control over the circumstances that would cause 80% of agents  to leave the industry.

But you do have control over what types of agents you recruit.

If you focus your recruiting efforts on those agents who are getting listings or have the capacity to get listings, you’re lowering your risk regardless of what happens in the future.

The future will belong to the firms who have the most talented agents focused on the activities that produce the most revenue.

For now, acquiring a large group of agents who dominate the listing side of the transaction may be your safest bet.

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PS. If you need some help retooling your recruiting strategy, reach out and schedule a free recruiting consultation.  Over the last decade, we’ve helped hundreds of organizations retool, refocus, and capture new opportunities when the winds have changed.