Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal speculated that one of America’s most popular professions would soon be upended.

As many as 80% of real estate agents could lose their jobs or leave the profession amid continued class-action litigation. 

Additionally, some experts are predicting that, over time, the $100 billion annual commission pool on home sales in the U.S. could be cut by one-third.

Let’s suppose this is true (but I don’t think it will happen).  How would agent compensation change?

Right now, the $100 billion in commissions is being split among 2 million agents.
 
This amounts to about $50,000/agent.

In the new world, $66 billion would be split among 400,000 agents.

This amounts to $165,000/agent.

This means real estate agents would be among the top 10-highest paying professions in the country.

Let’s still suppose this is true.  How would the new reality affect recruiting?

Do you think it would be difficult to find agents who could consistently operate at this level?

Do you think the competition for these high-performing agents would increase or decrease?

Do you think the stakes of hiring an agent who could perform at this level would increase or decrease?

Regardless of how this all shakes out, the need to source and select talented individuals to fill the real estate agent position will only increase in the years ahead.

If you were hoping the brave new world was going to get you out of recruiting, think again.